Glass: fundamentals drive weakening, macro and policy may have support
2024-11-25

1, futures market: Last week, the glass futures price range fluctuated, as of Friday, the main contract closing price of 1240 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 2.82%.

2. Spot market: Last week, the spot price of glass fell first and then rose. As of November 22, the average transaction price of the corresponding delivery grade float glass in Shahe area was 1284.4 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan/ton from last Friday; On November 22, the average price of domestic float glass was 1391 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton from last Friday.

3, supply: The recent float glass production level is relatively stable, but some of the production line there is a feeding plan, early part of the ignition production line product, glass supply has actually increased. As of this Friday, the daily melting volume of the industry was 159,100 tons, an increase of 600 tons/day from last Friday.

4, inventory: Last week, glass enterprises ended several weeks of storage trend, as of November 21, domestic float glass enterprises inventory 48.426 million heavy boxes, up 2.3% week on week, up 19.37% year on year. Glass inventory is no longer declining on the one hand, the supply is no longer reduced, on the other hand, the recent spot trading atmosphere has fallen. The current glass inventory level is still at the second-highest level in recent years, and the pressure is still high.

5, transaction: The recent spot market sentiment has cooled, and the production and sales rate in various regions is more than 50% to 80%, and the regional performance differentiation is obvious. In the second half of the week, the speculative atmosphere in Shahe area increased, driving the local production and sales to rise sharply, but the production and sales in Hubei region are still at a relatively low level.

6, Policy: Last week, the property market policy in many places was further relaxed, and Guangzhou will purchase the stock of commercial housing below 90 square meters in the whole city as security housing. Guangzhou and Shenzhen will cancel the standard of ordinary housing and non-ordinary housing from December 1, 2024, and clarify the relevant taxation issues. The continuous implementation of real estate policies for a long period is conducive to the recovery of glass terminal demand, but the policy transmission to the spot industrial chain still takes a long time.

7, view: glass supply recovery, inventory accumulation, spot trading atmosphere cooling, glass fundamentals driven by the previous marginal weaker, insufficient support for the disk. Considering that the market still has incremental policy expectations for the important meeting in December, glass futures prices may still be supported by macro and policy expectations in the later stage, but the market trading logic will again frequently switch between macro policies and fundamentals, and the volatility will expand again, pay attention to controlling positions. Focus on macro and policy orientation, glass spot transactions.